| [1848]
11. Mr. B. Ahern   asked the Taoiseach the anticipated population growth early in the next century; and the underlying assumptions, if any, there are regarding an increase in the birth rate, increased longevity and trends in net emigration. [11581/96]
The Taoiseach: The official population and labour force projections for the period 1996-2026 were published in April 1995. Four separate population projections were prepared based on two different fertility assumptions and two different migration assumptions. These assumptions, together with the single assumption on mortality, were agreed by an expert group chaired by the CSO.
I am circulating in the Official Report a statement containing a summary of the main projections and the underlying assumptions.
Following is the statement:
Population projections, 1996-2026
| Scenario |
Population |
Annual average per cent change in total population in 5-year period |
| 0-14 |
15-64 |
65 years and over |
Total |
|
Thousands |
|
| Actual (Base)1991 |
940.6 |
2,182.2 |
402.9 |
3,525.7 |
— |
| M1 |
|
|
|
|
|
| F1 1996 |
841.0 |
2,336.0 |
411.3 |
3,588.2 |
0.35 |
| 2001 |
772.9 |
2,445.1 |
420.8 |
3,648.9 |
0.34 |
| 2006 |
761.8 |
2,518.4 |
439.4 |
3,719.5 |
0.38 |
| 2011 |
780.6 |
2,571.2 |
479.8 |
3,831.7 |
0.60 |
| 2016 |
791.8 |
2,594.1 |
548.2 |
3,934.1 |
0.53 |
| 2021 |
774.1 |
2,618.7 |
620.6 |
4,013.5 |
0.40 |
| 2026 |
734.4 |
2,640.2 |
693.6 |
4,068.2 |
0.27 |
| F2 1996 |
838.4 |
2,336.0 |
411.3 |
3,585.7 |
0.34 |
| 2001 |
749.6 |
2,455.1 |
420.8 |
3,625.5 |
0.22 |
| 2006 |
696.9 |
2,518.4 |
439.4 |
3,654.6 |
0.16 |
| 2011 |
665.2 |
2,568.7 |
479.8 |
3,713.8 |
0.32 |
| 2016 |
647.4 |
2,570.8 |
548.2 |
3,766.5 |
0.28 |
| 2021 |
625.2 |
2,554.0 |
620.6 |
3,799.9 |
0.18 |
| 2026 |
592.8 |
2,522.7 |
693.6 |
3,809.2 |
0.05 |
| M2 |
|
|
|
|
|
| F1 1996 |
841.0 |
2,336.0 |
411.3 |
3,588.2 |
0.35 |
| 2001 |
767.2 |
2,404.3 |
423.8 |
3,595.3 |
0.04 |
| 2006 |
740.9 |
2,414.8 |
445.6 |
3,601.3 |
0.03 |
| 2011 |
740.6 |
2,465.0 |
485.6 |
3,691.1 |
0.49 |
| 2016 |
738.4 |
2,484.6 |
552.1 |
3,775.0 |
0.45 |
| 2021 |
724.4 |
2,497.2 |
621.9 |
3,843.4 |
0.36 |
| 2026 |
700.5 |
2,499.5 |
692.2 |
3,892.2 |
0.25 |
| [1849][1850]F2 1996 |
838.4 |
2,336.0 |
411.3 |
3,585.7 |
0.34 |
| 2001 |
744.2 |
2,404.3 |
423.8 |
3,572.3 |
-0.08 |
| 2006 |
678.7 |
2,414.8 |
445.6 |
3,539.1 |
-0.19 |
| 2011 |
632.1 |
2,462.4 |
485.6 |
3,580.2 |
0.23 |
| 2016 |
603.9 |
2,461.7 |
552.1 |
3,617.7 |
0.21 |
| 2021 |
585.1 |
2,435.1 |
621.9 |
3,642.1 |
0.13 |
| 2026 |
565.4 |
2,389.0 |
692.2 |
3,646.6 |
0.02 |
Assumptions
Fertility
F1: High fertility assumption
Decline in TFR at a constant rate from 1.93 in 1993 to 1.8 in 2026 (i.e. an average annual decline of 0.25%).
F2: Low fertility assumption
Decline in TFR at a constant rate from 1.93 in 1993 to 1.5 in 2006 (i.e. an average annual decline of 2%) and remaining constant thereafter.
Mortality
Increase in survivorship rates consistent with gains in life expectancy at birth from 72.3 years in 1990-92 to 77.2 years in 2025-27 for males; and 77.9 years in 1990-92 to 83.2 years in 2025-27 for females.
Migration
M1: Low migration assumption
-35,000 in 1991-1996;
-7,500 per annum during 1996-2006;
zero migration during 2006-2026.
M2: High migration assumption
-35,000 in 1991-1996;
-17,500 per annum during 1996-2006;
zero migration during 2006-2026.
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