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Written Answers. - Population Growth.

Wednesday, 12 June 1996

Dáil Éireann Debate
Vol. 466 No. 7

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[1848]

 11. Mr. B. Ahern Information on Bertie Ahern Zoom on Bertie Ahern  asked the Taoiseach Information on John Bruton Zoom on John Bruton  the anticipated population growth early in the next century; and the underlying assumptions, if any, there are regarding an increase in the birth rate, increased longevity and trends in net emigration. [11581/96]

The Taoiseach: Information on John Bruton Zoom on John Bruton The official population and labour force projections for the period 1996-2026 were published in April 1995. Four separate population projections were prepared based on two different fertility assumptions and two different migration assumptions. These assumptions, together with the single assumption on mortality, were agreed by an expert group chaired by the CSO.

I am circulating in the Official Report a statement containing a summary of the main projections and the underlying assumptions.

Following is the statement:

Population projections, 1996-2026

Scenario Population Annual average per cent change in total population in 5-year period
0-14 15-64 65 years and over Total
Thousands
Actual (Base)1991 940.6 2,182.2 402.9 3,525.7
M1
F1 1996 841.0 2,336.0 411.3 3,588.2 0.35
2001 772.9 2,445.1 420.8 3,648.9 0.34
2006 761.8 2,518.4 439.4 3,719.5 0.38
2011 780.6 2,571.2 479.8 3,831.7 0.60
2016 791.8 2,594.1 548.2 3,934.1 0.53
2021 774.1 2,618.7 620.6 4,013.5 0.40
2026 734.4 2,640.2 693.6 4,068.2 0.27
F2 1996 838.4 2,336.0 411.3 3,585.7 0.34
2001 749.6 2,455.1 420.8 3,625.5 0.22
2006 696.9 2,518.4 439.4 3,654.6 0.16
2011 665.2 2,568.7 479.8 3,713.8 0.32
2016 647.4 2,570.8 548.2 3,766.5 0.28
2021 625.2 2,554.0 620.6 3,799.9 0.18
2026 592.8 2,522.7 693.6 3,809.2 0.05
M2
F1 1996 841.0 2,336.0 411.3 3,588.2 0.35
2001 767.2 2,404.3 423.8 3,595.3 0.04
2006 740.9 2,414.8 445.6 3,601.3 0.03
2011 740.6 2,465.0 485.6 3,691.1 0.49
2016 738.4 2,484.6 552.1 3,775.0 0.45
2021 724.4 2,497.2 621.9 3,843.4 0.36
2026 700.5 2,499.5 692.2 3,892.2 0.25
[1849][1850]F2 1996 838.4 2,336.0 411.3 3,585.7 0.34
2001 744.2 2,404.3 423.8 3,572.3 -0.08
2006 678.7 2,414.8 445.6 3,539.1 -0.19
2011 632.1 2,462.4 485.6 3,580.2 0.23
2016 603.9 2,461.7 552.1 3,617.7 0.21
2021 585.1 2,435.1 621.9 3,642.1 0.13
2026 565.4 2,389.0 692.2 3,646.6 0.02

Assumptions

Fertility

F1: High fertility assumption

Decline in TFR at a constant rate from 1.93 in 1993 to 1.8 in 2026 (i.e. an average annual decline of 0.25%).

F2: Low fertility assumption

Decline in TFR at a constant rate from 1.93 in 1993 to 1.5 in 2006 (i.e. an average annual decline of 2%) and remaining constant thereafter.

Mortality

Increase in survivorship rates consistent with gains in life expectancy at birth from 72.3 years in 1990-92 to 77.2 years in 2025-27 for males; and 77.9 years in 1990-92 to 83.2 years in 2025-27 for females.

Migration

M1: Low migration assumption

-35,000 in 1991-1996;

-7,500 per annum during 1996-2006;

zero migration during 2006-2026.

M2: High migration assumption

-35,000 in 1991-1996;

-17,500 per annum during 1996-2006;

zero migration during 2006-2026.


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